Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Over/Under NBA Regular Season Wins

Sal Peretore and Bert Benedict


Finally! We've been waiting MONTHS for a betting service to release their over/unders for NBA regular season wins, and at last, we found them at Pinnacle Sports. Looking to wager on a few of these? Well look no further than our predictions as to how teams will fare this season. (Note: don't get too carried away with these because injuries ALWAYS happen and always clean out your bank account. Trust me.) Here they are in the order Paul found them...

Charlotte Bobcats - 19.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
-The 'Cats racked up 18 wins in their inaugural season, so why can't they tack on two more? With more talent than a year ago (Felton, May) and 82 games of experience under Okafor's belt, this team should definitely eclipse the 20-win mark.

Paul Takes: Under
- I wouldn't touch it. The Bobcats will play hard every single night out, meaning they always have a chance of winning. That said, they really have no business winning 20 games in a tougher Eastern Conference.


Boston Celtics - 42 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
-On paper, this team only lost Antoine Walker and an exponentially aging Gary Payton. That said, the Celtics are still a very immature ballclub and on top of that, have yet to determine their starting point guard. I'd think you would be safer with the under here, but on the other hand, I'm not sure why Vegas has them pegged at 42. Kinda fishy...

Paul Takes: Under
- The Celtics won 45 games last year in taking the Atlantic. But this year, they're worse than New Jersey. They're worse than Philadelphia. And they might even be worse than New York. I'm taking this one with confidence.


Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
-Um, how suspicious is this total? Didn't the Sixers win 43 games last year? And don't they have Webber for an entire season this time around? In theory, they should have no problem winning 42+, but like Paul mentions below, injury-wise they have to be one of the more riskier teams in the league.

Paul Takes: Over
- Everything I'm hearing from Sixers camp is making me believe in this team. Sure they struggled at the end of last season, but they're going to start this season with a happy AI, a healthier and much happier C-Webb, and Andre Iguodala, who happens to be one of my early favorites for Most Improved Player. I'd take the over on this one, but with the Sixers being such an injury risk, I can't highly recommend them.


New Jersey Nets - 46.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- 47-35? Looking at it that way, it seems like a bit of a stretch. But remember that this club was riddled with injuries (Kidd, RJ) throughout the 04-05 season, and only had Vince for 70% of the year. Put VC on this squad for 82 games with a healthy JKidd and Jefferson and this team can't win an additional 5 games? Sure they can.

Paul Takes: Over
- I still like the Nets to take the Atlantic (though I'm quietly sneaking onto the 76ers bandwagon), but I'm not completely sold on them. Their three big stars are all major injury concerns, which is why I'd avoid them much like the Sixers.


Toronto Raptors - 29.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- I'm not sure why Paul's so gung-ho on the Raps and the under. Sam Mitchell's squad won 33 games last season amidst the Vince Carter saga and on-going battles with Rafer Alston. Now, both those players are gone and the team has brought in Mike James, Charlie Villanueva, Joey Graham, and Jose Calderon. Sure the majority of this team is still in diapers, but without the constant distractions I bet Mitchell has this club playing hard every night.

Paul Takes: Under
- The only thing holding me back from banking my entire life savings on the Toronto Raptors winning less than 30 games is Sam Mitchell. I'm big on him, and I believe he'll have his team playing tough all season.


Detroit Pistons - 52.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- This team will undoubtedly struggle with adversity during the first few months of the season, and hover around the .500 mark. With an improved Indiana and Cleveland in their rear view mirrors, 50 wins would be quite an achievement. However, this doesn't mean they're not my favorites to take the East.

Paul Takes: Over
- Larry Brown has been shown the door so I think we'll see a more focused Detroit team during the regular season. I also get the feeling that they're going to come in hungry since almost everyone is writing them off to start the season.


Chicago Bulls - 44.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under - *WORST BET*
- I'd rather pour fire-hot coffee in my eye sockets than forecast the Bulls' win total. But taking the under is probably a lot safer.

Paul Takes: Under
- I'm having a more difficult time projecting what the Bulls will do this season than any other team. One thing is a certainty-- they won't be able to sneak up on anyone like they did last year.


Indiana Pacers - 52 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- OVER! They could/should win 58-60.

Paul Takes: Over - *BEST BET*
- I LOVE the Pacers to win more than 52 games. They can withstand an injury to every single player on their roster because of their ridiculous depth, and you know this is going to be a focused team for 82 games.


Cleveland Cavaliers - 47.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- They're not winning 50, I'll tell you that much. But they should have no problem getting to 45, 46. Yeah, this is a line you don't mess with because there's a 100% chance they end up with 47 or 48. Trust me. Plus, Vegas knows everyone wants to roll with LeBron, so you can be sure they'll be at 47 or fewer.

Paul Takes: Over
- 47-48 wins sounds just about right for this team, though you can't rule out anything because of LeBron. If anything, take the over. Don't dare bet against LeBron.


Milwaukee Bucks - 35 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- I like this team a lot and see them winning right around 40. They are young, but have some very nice pieces to work with, depth at the PG position, a talented young center, an up-and-coming 3, and an emerging superstar at the 2. I think taking the over here is one of the safest bets on the board.

Paul Takes: Over
- Most people have the Bucks challenging for the 8th Playoff spot, which would entail them winning at least 40 games. But consider this-- the Bulls were the only team with a young point guard and center to make the Playoffs last season, and I'm not sure T.J. Ford/Bogut is quite Hinrich/Curry. I'm not touching this one.


Miami Heat - 57.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- ANYTHING can happen with this team. I repeat, anything. Never forget that Gary Payton, Jason Williams, and Antoine Walker were added to this team. Three egos like that can sway this club 5 wins in either direction. That said however, this roster is far too dangerous not to rack up at least 60.

Paul Takes: Over
-I do believe Miami will win 60 this year, but it's a long season and anything can happen. Winning 58 games is a tall order no matter how talented you are.


Washington Wizards - 41 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- I agree with Paul that the Wiz should be much better defensively. But their front court is an absolute joke. Will anyone be able to score in the paint? Etan Thomas? Brendan Haywood? Calvin Booth? C'mon now. As for wagering on 41 wins, I'd stay far away. They should eclipse the mark but I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up, especially if Arenas goes down.

Paul Takes: Over
- Why is everybody so down on this team? They'll be better this season. More defense and leadership is a positive trade off for scoring and instability.


Orlando Magic - 33.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- I like this team more than most people. I think Howard will be better, same with Francis, Turkoglu returns, Hill should be fine, and Nelson has help with Dooling. Plus if DeShawn Stevenson plays anything like he did in his first preseason game, this team has an outside shot at the Playoffs.

Paul Takes: Over
- I think they're mildly better than a 33.5 win team, but I wouldn't bet on it.


Atlanta Hawks - 19 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- No way this young team wins 7 more games. 7 games is a lot, even when you only totaled 13 the year before.

Paul Takes: Under
- I doubt they win 19, but that's not exactly a whopping accomplishment if they do. Too low a number to risk.


Seattle SuperSonics - 44.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- New coach, lots of turnover on the roster, practically no offense from their 4s and 5s--how in the world can they finish above .500? But remember, we all had this team pegged for 30+ wins last year and they had the best record in the league for much of the first half. Still, the under seems pretty safe to me.

Paul Takes: Under
- As much as it feels like this team got worse this off-season, the reality is that they really didn't lose that much. Considering they won 52 last season, 45 would be a pretty significant drop-off. It's just too difficult to project how this team will be affected.


Denver Nuggets - 49.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- I just don't think Carmelo, Martin, and Camby can stay healthy enough for this team to get to 50 wins. Believe it or not, this is one of my safer bets.

Paul Takes: Over
- I've got the Nuggets winning right around 50. But given the depth out West, it might be too much to ask for this team to win any more.


Minnesota Timberwolves - 44.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- You know that rule never bet against Brett Favre on Monday Night? Well apply those same parameters to KG. He WILL get this team to the Playoffs this season with 46 wins.

Paul Takes: Under - *WORST BET*
- There's too many question marks encompassing the Wolves to feel comfortable about taking this bet. Let me rephrase that-- there's too many jerk-offs on the Wolves to feel comfortable about taking this bet.



Portland Trail Blazers - 29 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- Any time you have a large group of young kids on a roster you can't expect them to play a lick of defense. That never translates into many wins. Even though I think they are headed in the right direction, this season will be more about deciding who's here to stay, and who to throw out with the trash.

Paul Takes: Under
- A young team that isn't necessarily gunning for the Playoffs this season. If they fall out of the race early, McMillan will likely develop the younger guys. That could mean an ugly record. Take the under if you please. I don't feel comfortable betting against Nate or a team with this much talent, even if it is a young squad.


Utah Jazz - 32 Wins
Ant Takes: Over - *BEST BET*
- You'd be foolish to forget how well the Jazz were playing during the first few weeks of last season, that is until Kirilenko went down. With a healthy AK-47 and Carlos Boozer and a much improved back court, this team is almost a lock for 38-42 wins.

Paul Takes: Over
- People aren't taking into consideration how tremendously affected this team was by the Kirilenko and Boozer injuries last year. And they also addressed their need for quicker and more athletic guards by bringing in Deron Williams, Devin Brown, and Milt Palacio. The Jazz will win more than 32 games.


Phoenix Suns - OFF
Ant Takes: Anything over 41
- This is still a solid team without Amare IF everyone can stay healthy. Kurt Thomas should fill in nicely for Stoudemire and I fully expect them to be at .500 when the man-child is set to return around the All-Star Break.

Paul Takes: Anything under 45
- This line was originally at 54.5 until the news about Amare was released. This sucks because I was already confidently taking the under. I had an iffy feeling about the Suns all summer long. They changed their identity in order to match up better with the Spurs, but in the process they altered the recipe for a team that dominated everyone else. And now, they've lost their stud Amare until probably right around the All-Star Break. Forget about challenging the Spurs, the Suns will be fighting for their Playoff lives all season long.


Sacramento Kings - 49.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- Sactown piled up 50 wins a year ago and I firmly believe this team is even better. They have solid depth, more defense and hopefully Brad Miller for an entire season. Abdur-Rahim should be a big boost for that team.

Paul Takes: Over
- I was originally torn on this one, but with Amare being out for so long, the Kings are the obvious candidate to replace the Suns as the Pacific Division champ. That should result in at least 50 wins.


Dallas Mavericks - 52.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- Seems like the classic set-up bet. Team wins 58 a year ago, don't lose too much (Finley won't hurt), yet they are pegged at 5.5 fewer wins? Seems fishy, take the under if you have to.

Paul Takes: Over
- They won 58 last year, but almost everyone in the West got better and they may have taken a step back. They'll end up with close to 52 which makes this a bet probably not worth risking.


Houston Rockets - 53.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- 51 a year ago and have added Swift and tons of backcourt depth--mid-50s for sure.

Paul Takes: Over
- I like the Rockets to be the second best team in the West, meaning they should pile up at least 55 wins. Unfortunately, they'll likely have to face the Mavericks in Round One again, followed by the Spurs in the Conference Semis.


L.A. Clippers - 37 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- Losing Simmons is going to hurt a lot worse than they think. Failing to re-sign a perimeter defender like that really takes a lot away from your team defense. Plus Sam Cassell stinks and Shaun Livington still weighs less than 140 lbs. 35 wins for Elgin Baylor's senile ass.

Paul Takes: Under
- The Clips have the potential to be a Playoff team, there's no denying that. But you're still an idiot if you wager on them exceeding 37 wins. C'mon, it's the Clippers we're talking about.


L.A. Lakers - 41.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- Read below.

Paul Takes: Over
- The Lakers don't have the talent to win any more than 45 games. That said, would you bet against Phil and Kobe to finish under .500? Me neither.


Golden State Warriors - 40 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- This club will have NO problem winning 40+ IF they manage to stay healthy. Baron Davis gets hurt making a sandwich and J-Rich and Troy Murphy have missed significant time over the past two years. Shit, Ike Diogu broke his hand like 2 seconds into training camp. I like this bet a lot, but it's tough to be certain of this team's health.

Paul Takes: Over
- I really believe the Warriors are going to end their Playoff drought this season and finish with upwards of 45 wins. With a cupcake schedule to start the season, they should find it easy to relinquish the same momentum they ended last season with. Yet still, we're talking about the Golden State Warriors-- I don't think anyone would be remotely surprised if they failed to live up to expectations.


San Antonio Spurs - 57.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- This is the best team the NBA has seen since the 1995-97 Bulls teams. 57.5 is a joke. Shit, 67.5 may end up being a joke.

Paul Takes: Over
- The Spurs know by now that they don't need to tally 60 wins in order to claim another title. Popovich will try hard to finish as the West's best, but not at the expense of wearing down his key players. They probably break 58, but I don't think it's as sure a bet as most probably do.


Memphis Grizzlies - 42.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Under
- One injury to Gasol and this Grizzly team isn't going to get out of the 30s. Where the hell is Jerry West?

Paul Takes: Under
- Everyone seems to think Memphis is going to fall off the map this year. I got them missing the Playoffs, but I can't see them slipping that badly. People underestimate how good of a coach Fratello is-- he won't let the Grizz tumble.


New Orleans Hornets - 20.5 Wins
Ant Takes: Over
- This team is going to face a lot of adversity playing in Oklahoma City, but I actually think that may end up providing a boost. Plus that Chris Paul/JR Smith tandem is going to be something special. 22-25 wins, I guarantee it.

Paul Takes: Over
- I think the Hornets are better than a 20 win team, I really do. They have a solid frontline and the league's most exciting young backcourt. But that might be the problem-- J.R. Smith and Chris Paul are going to get tooled defensively by bigger, more experienced guards. Take the over if you're feeling lucky, but not because I told you to.


New York Knicks - 39.5 Wins
Ants Take: Over
- The over seems like the safe bet here, but c'mon, who wouldn't take the Knicks here? Don't you think Vegas is smart enough to realize that tons of bettors are going to peg NY for 40+? Could be a set up. I'd stay away.

Paul Takes: Over
- The Knicks could very well climb into the Playoffs, but it's going to take a heck of a coaching job by Larry Brown. I wouldn't dare doubt LB given his track record when taking over teams, so take the over if anything.

2 Comments:

At 10:47 PM, Anonymous Anthony K said...

Hello guys, this is Anthony K from the fantasy league and i just checked out the site for the first time and damn you have up an article on my favorite topics, nba futures. Great work guys, I like your opinions and myself have Indiana over as my best play followed by Utah over, Golden state over, and the spurs over. Indiana is playing with a big chip on their shoulder and with a full lineup all season long they will be a great team and i think could challenge the Heat to come out of the East. Golden State was a new team with Baron and Utah fought their way to 26 wins in a very turbulent year, i think over 32 is a good bet with Sloan at the helm. Spurs push 60 and try for home court throughout playoffs, I bet Pop realizes how important home court will be in the Finals.
Glad i discovered your site and will make it a daily read. Best of luck in the fantasy league.

Anthony k

 
At 1:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You guys are right on point with most of these, and I love the pic at top. I checked out that link and it already appears that some of the lines have changes. Maybe they read your article. The Jazz are now up to 34! Raptors dropped one, Knicks rose one, there were a couple others too. But get this, they got the Suns at 52! Unbelievable!!!!!

 

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